This is being conceived and written about a week before the national election and the polls still say PICK-EM. When you read this there should be a President. Notice we didn’t say will! Why should college basketball be any different? There is no chalk!
Until the dreaded one-and-done is restructured there’ll never be another college hoop dynasty! So who lost the least and recruited the most? And is there a mid-major out there, a la Butler, to sneak into the Final Four? Let’s take a peak.
Louisville
The Cardinals, brilliantly coaches a year ago by Rick Pitino, lost pawns 6-4 Kyle Kuric (12.6 ppg/4.2 rpg) and 6-2 Chris Smith (9.7 ppg) but return the king of the lead-guards, 5-11 Peyton Siva. We didn’t identify Siva as a point-guard because, in today’s market, there is no such animal. There are point-guards and floor leaders and Siva, voted Big East Tourney MVP, rates among the best of the latter. Pitino, who back in the day taught America how and when to shoot the trifecta, has become a defensive dean sporting the sixth best (38.4) field-goal percentage defense in the nation a year ago. His key “D” components return: 6-11 jr. rejector Gorgui Dieng, 6-10 jr. stopper Russ Smith and 6-6/250 lb lane commander Chane Behanan. His 9.5 ppg, 7.5 rpg, and 51% field goal pct. were marred by a puny 16.7 three-point norm and weak 59.4 from the charity stripe. Wayne Blackshear, a 6-5 sophomore swing man who battled through a season of injuries, will be joined by 6-6 George Mason transfer, Luke Hancock, touted by Pitino and others to be The Ville’s best all around player. Both are needed to give the Cardinals that old-time, three point shooting religion, but Hancock must come as advertised while his teammates remain injury-free if Pitino is to reach the Promised Land… Again.
Indiana
One of the reasons the Big 10 was the nation’s most dominant conference a year ago was the resurgence of Tom Crean’s Indiana Hoosers. With the team’s top five scorers returning from a Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament revenge loss to eventual National Champ Kentucky, Indiana’s the surest thing on the board to move up! Factor in the addition of McDonald’s All-American Kevin “Yogi” Ferrell and Crean could mingle with the cream of the crop come March Madness. Ferrell, converted from a scoring machine (point-guard!) to a floor general by Coach Ed Schilling in time to direct his Park Tudor H.S. to back-to-back Indiana State titles, will be greeted by 6-11 super-soph Cody Zeller (15.6 ppg/6.6 rpg) the Big 10’s co-freshman of the year and a can’t miss Wooden Trophy candidate. Zeller staying means Indiana going! Also on board are 4 year starter Christian Watford (12.5 ppg/5.8 rpg), a 6-9 forward who canned 43% of his triple tries, 6-5 swingman Victor Oladipo, the team’s best defender who chipped in nearly 11 ppg, 6-6 small forward Will Sheehey, a huge contributor during Crean’s stretch run and 6-0 sr. combo-guard Jordan Hulls who shot a dazzling 49.3 from the land of three but ran a shaky show at times a year ago. No problem this time around because Yogi’s here and he’s a potential Tony winner! But can he help reduce that nasty 66.4 points per game allowed, 10th in the Big 10 and 158th nationally? Less turnovers should lead to less opposition buckets. ON PAPER!
Kentucky
The only person in basketball who despises the one-and-done business more than yours truly is John Calipari. Can you imagine what this Wildcat contingent would look like if our Two-and-Flew were the law of the land? In case you’ve forgotten, which you haven’t, Coach Cal’s Top 6 National Champs split for the greener pastures of the NBA. How does a program overcome such a recruiting disaster? ESPN gave the definitive answer in their “All-Access Kentucky” informercial… THEY START FROM SCRATCH. Scratch begins with 6-10 Nerlens Noel, called the best high school shot-blocker since Patrick Ewing by HSBI’s legendary Tom Konchalski. Koncho’s looking good but don’t expect another Anthony Davis…National Player of the Year, Final 4 MVP, #1 NBA Draft choice and a U.S. Olympian. Due to the advent of summer school workouts Calipari got a good vision of 7-0 Willie Cauley-Stein and loved what he saw. “Blown away” was his response. A Twin-Towers lineup becomes an immediate option especially if NC State transfer, Ryan Harrow, struggles early with Cal’s beloved dribble-drive offensive sets. The 6-2 high flying combo-guard had a full season to practice with the team so should be mentally prepared. Despite the loss of the school’s all-time 3 point percentage leader, Doron Lamb…he should’ve stayed…UK appears rock-solid at the two-guard spot. McDonald’s All-American, Archie Goodwin, an explosive 6-4 athlete, blessed with a smooth stroke from deep, and Wright State transfer, Julius Mays, a 6-2 sr. who led the Raiders in scoring, assists, and steals, and provides a veteran presence. Another “vet” is 6-9 soph Kyle Wiltjer who stroked 43% from beyond the line. Yet another McDonald’s All-American is the quintessential power-forward, Alex Poythress, a 6-8/215 lb block of granite who’ll start from Day 1. Can Calipari pull it off again? Probably not. But it would be foolish to ever underestimate this man. Anyone who came from Moon Township (Pa.) and went to the moon of college hoops cannot be taken lightly.
Michigan
John Beilein’s best Michigan recruiting class plus the return of deluxe floor leader Trey Burke give the Wolverines the look of a solid Big 10 runner-up to Indiana. Add to that those famous Beilein intangibles…switching defense and an insatiable desire to teach…and the look becomes more national in scope. Without Burke, however, the look would have been forlorn. The well-constructed 6-0 sophomore was voted co-Big-10 “Freshman of the Year” and leads a deep and talented, if youthful cast, headed by Beilein’s biggest name recruit Canadian-import Mitch McGary. The 6-10/250lb pivotman who combines passing skill with power, outplayed Kentucky’s wunderkind, Nerlens Noel, at the loaded (coaches and players) AAU Super Showcase even in Orlando in 2011. Nothing need be added. After averaging 36 minutes per game a year ago Burke will welcome relief from freshman lead-guard Spike Albrecht and 6-6 off-guard Nike Staukas. Beilein has never been deeper in the backcourt! The 6-1 Albrecht comes heady beyond his years while Staukas once hit 78 triples in a five-minute practice drill. Obviously born to play for Beilein. Then there are the sons of ex NBA guns, 6-6 jr. Tim Hardaway Jr. (14.6) and 6-7 Glenn Robinson III. Hardaway is versatile enough to play either two-guard or small-forward and is blessed with more moves then Bernie Madoff. But must improve (or stay away from) his 3-pointer (28.3). Not so for the wing freshman, Robinson, who thrives on the trifecta and won’t need a quickness transfusion. Taking some pressure off the youthful Mitch McGary in the post are 6-8/250 lb jr. Jordan Morgan (7.3 ppg/5.6 rpg) and 6-10/250 lb soph Jon Horford who missed all but 9 games a year ago with a stress fracture. Coach Beilein’s pivot options are almost as numerous as his backline combos so the folks in Ann Arbor can feast on this bevy of talent from wire to wire.
Syracuse
Watching the Orange crush outmanned Pace College and Bloomsberg U in pre-season exhibitions were painful assignments but one scouting point was transparent…Syracuse will be a lot better than their 2011-12 manpower losses suggest. Waiters, Joseph, Hardine and Melo accounted for most of Jim Boeheim’s 17-1 Big East regular-season title success (34-3 overall). But not all of it! Returning sr. Brandon Triche (9.4 ppg) and Michael Carter-Williams, a 6-5 soph, will lead a physically and mentally strong backline brigade that can challenge any contingent in the East. Especially if 6-4 redshirt freshman Trevor Cooney is let loose from the land of three. Trust us, folks, he’s lights out! Triche is a high-octane performer from both ends of the floor. He’s money at crunch time! Carter-Williams will be the Cuse’s assist leader if those pre-season scrimmages mean anything at all. He sees the floor and delivers the ball on time. Except for burly 6-10/275 lb frosh pivotman, DuJuan Coleman, who led Jamesville DeWitt H.S. to four consecutive N.Y. State Class A championships, the Orange frontline is long, lean, at times mean…and deep! Boeheim’s vaunted 2-3 zone, which has accounted for many of his 890 career wins in 36 years as head coach, is far from its suffocating best at this point in time. The young bigs should get it around the start of league play. Rakeem Christmas, one of Jim’s defensive fixtures, is an athletic frontline swing who attacks the offensive glass and swats shots with vengeance if not polish. If 6-8 sr. James Southerland doesn’t start this trip he’ll be the best 6th man on the planet. He owns a professional stroke from deep and runs the floor like the future NBA’er he is. Southpaw sticker C.J. Fair (8.5 ppg) appears to have increased his range and consistency and could always rebound while 6-10 jr. Baye Keita shot 71% from the field (mostly slam dunks) in limited playing time. Finally there’s 6-7 freshman Jerami Grant, son of former NBA player Harvey, a late-blooming combo forward who’ll do no worse than keeping the above on their toes and battling hard for playing time. After all, he comes from one of the elite programs in high school hoop history, DeMatha Catholic out of Hyattsville, Md.
Well there you have it, five clubs with a bonafide shot at the National Championship. Next on the agenda, a handful of Mid-Majors with a chance for a Final Four berth. Butler, anyone?
