LAGUNA NIGUEL, Ca. – College hoops of the 2015-16 get underway in earnest on Friday, with things really kicking into pre-conference gear on Tuesday night in Chicago.
The United Center will offer up a double-header that will tip at 7:30 (ET) with Kentucky against Duke, following at about 10 or so by Kansas and Michigan State.
That would be a heck of a set of semifinal matchups on Final Four Saturday (April 2) in Houston, wouldn’t it?
A look at my choices for the teams that will be playing into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament this spring:
1. MARYLAND
Why: Plenty of key returnees from what was the second best Big 10 team during the regular season plus three terrific newcomers equal a solid choice to win the conference and get to the Final Four.
Why Not: A backcourt tandem of Melo Trimble and transfer Jaylen Brantley doesn’t click on all cylinders consistently.
2. KENTUCKY
Why: The usual multiple future NBA lottery selections still reside in Lexington, the most notable of those being freshmen Skal Labissiere and Jamal Murray.
Why Not: Issues could arise if John Calipari if Labissiere – or another freshman, Isaac Humphries – if can’t provide at least something approaching the low-post offensive presence Karl Towns provided last season.
3. NORTH CAROLINA
Why: There isn’t the multiple future lottery choices in Chapel Hill that are on other campuses but Roy Williams has a veteran, deep and gifted roster of very good players.
Why Not: Will the NCAA’s on-going investigation impact the Tar Heels’ play – either indirectly or coming to (negative) fruition during the season?
4. VIRGINIA
Why: This has been the best team in the ACC – at least during the regular season – over the past two years and more than enough of the elements that made that possible are still in place in Charlottesville.
Why Not: What happens on the nights when the Cavs can generate enough points on the very rare occasions when that defense isn’t just “pretty good” and not its usual “impeccable”?
5. KANSAS
Why: Depth, skill, size and experience all seem to be ready to form a Final Four brew for Bill Self and the Jayhawks.
Why Not: Expectations will have to be dialed back – if ever-so-slightly – if rebounder-deluxe Cheick Diallo doesn’t gain his NCAA eligibility.
6. WICHITA STATE
Why: A backcourt of seniors Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker and the presence of the one of the sport’s elite coaches (Gregg Marshall) is a nice place to start.
Why Not: If the Shockers get enough offense from up front a “Freshman/Senior” Final Four combo for Baker and VanVleet might be a tad out of the squad’s reach.
7. INDIANA
Why: There are four very good perimeter players in place by way of Yogi Ferrell, Troy Williams, Robert Johnson and James Blackmon Jr.
Why Not: If freshmen Thomas Bryant and Juwan Morgan are up to stuff up front a run at a Big Ten title – and FF trip – could be stunned considerably.
8. GONZAGA
Why: The Bulldogs have a frontcourt that is both big and skilled, led by 6-9 John R. Wooden Award candidate Kyle Wiltjer. And he’s the “little guy” up front.
Why Not: Mark Few has to go all-in with a point guard, Josh Perkins, whose freshmen season ended after five games – and 101 on-the-floor minutes – because of a broken jaw.
9. IOWA STATE
Why: Two of the best half-dozen or so players in the Big 12 (point guard Monte Morris and forward Georges Niang) return and there are six or seven others in the mix who are who are within sprinting distance of all-conference territory.
Why Not: This was a squad built by Fred Hoiberg – and he’s now coaching the Chicago Bulls. Can the transition to Steve Prohm be anything approaching “seamless”?
10. ARIZONA
Why: The starting center and a guard who often got “starter’s minutes” – Kaleb Tarcezewski and Gabe York, respectively – return and will helped along by a notable much of newcomers. The most notably of those, Ryan Anderson (by way of Boston College after shoulder surgery and a redshirt year), could be Pac 12 Player of the Year.
Why Not: Three 2014-15 starters are getting significant NBA minutes and a fourth is playing in the NDBL.
11. DUKE
Why: Amile Jefferson and Grayson Allen were as responsible as any of the squad’s players for beating Wisconsin in the national title game – and they both return while being joined by three more McDonald’s All-Americans, notably slender forward Brandon Ingram.
Why Not: What if Derryck Thornton – or Allen or another freshman, Luke Kennard – can’t provide the stability and productivity turned in by Tyus Jones and Quin Cook in the backcourt?
12. VILLANOVA
Why: Jay Wright’s on-court plate runneth over with playmakers and jump shooters.
Why Not: The Cats lost a combined eight games over the past two seasons but failed to get into the second weekend of the NCAA tourney in each. Can they get over that March hump?
13. CAL
Why: Two McDonald’s All-Americans (Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb) join three exceptional veterans (Tyrone Wallace, Jordan Mathews and Jabari Bird) to make up what is about as good a starting lineup as will be found in the sport, coast to coast.
Why Not: The quality of depth will have to show itself pretty quickly to get much of an idea of how frequently and for how long any of those five starters will be on the bench.
14. OKLAHOMA
Why: Led by 2014-15 Big 12 Player of the Year Buddy Hield, this group of Sooners would seem on track to be the most successful squad since Lon Kruger came to Norman.
Why Not: As solid as they are in the backcourt, the Sooners could probably use a bit more low-post scoring to balance the attack out a bit.
15. UTAH
Why: This is likely the deepest squad in the Pac 12 and center Jakob Poeltl could be even more impressive, at both ends of the floor, than he was as a freshman.
Why Not: Delon Wright made a whole lot of things click on offense and defense in two years for the Utes and now he’s a rookie with the Toronto Raptors.
16. LSU
Why: Well, of course, start with freshman Ben Simmons. He and four intramural standouts would be a chore for a lot of very good teams to beat. But the superbly gifted left hander will be surrounded by the caliber of player that should enable Simmons to play into the second week of the NCAA tourney in what almost assuredly will be his only season of college hoops.
Why Not: What if the Tigers can’t evolve into anything more than just a nice vehicle to watch Simmons play for a year before he’s contending for NBA Rookie of the Year honors?
JUST MISSING OUT: Boise State, Butler, Connecticut, Louisville, Michigan State, Purdue, SMU and UCLA.
